Germany’s Spruce Stocks to Fall 75% by 2100 as Mills Pivot to Pine

Germany’s spruce stocks are in freefall and are projected to fall from 1.2 billion cubic metres in 2012 to 300 million cubic metres by 2100, new data presented at last month’s International Softwood Conference in Oslo shows. That is according to Tommi Sneck, president of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry (EOS), who told delegates that climate change and the legacy of pest outbreaks are driving the shift away from spruce.

“Due to climate change and its relative lack of suitability in a warming climate, availability of spruce logs will decline in the next few decades,” Sneck said. “We already see the first effects with reduced availability of spruce logs in the aftermath of the bark‑beetle crisis.

The tightening supply is prompting mills in Central Europe and southern Sweden to substitute pine for spruce. From a structural perspective, pine and spruce often meet the same strength classifications, though they differ in appearance, handling and treatment performance. “The industry should do more to promote pine as a structural timber, as the share of pine in production will increase compared with spruce,” Sneck added.

Last month, Wood Central reported that Sawmills across Germany are confronting an abrupt shortage of new spruce, pushing log prices to levels not seen in more than three decades. Industry groups say that the current shortage poses a threat to production and risks disruptions in construction and manufacturing next year.